Sure things?

Want some fun? How about a little analysis of that Police Foundation research on voting patterns and Police and Crime Commissioner elections that TopOfTheCops featured yesterday?

Let’s use it to pick out say, the ten best bets for Labour candidates in the country. To do this we’ll pick the ten seats that are Labour under all four scenarios in the report, ranked by how big the Labour vote is anticipated to be on the basis of recent opinion polls, and the knowledge that the LibDems aren’t standing in many areas. What do we find?

Well, the top ten Labour TopOfTheCops areas are:-

1. Merseyside – 69.6% of the anticipated vote is Labour
2. Northumbria – 65.64%
3. Durham – 65.63%
4. South Yorkshire – 62.04%
5. Greater Manchester – 59.68%
6. South Wales – 59.32%
7. Gwent – 57.47%
8. West Yorkshire – 55.20%
9. West Midlands – 54.69%
10. Nottinghamshire – 53.80%

On the scenario that is most like current politics these 10 areas and 4 others elect the Labour candidate on the first round alone with over 50% of the vote.

Now the fun bit. There are ten former Labour MPs in the running for Police and Crime Commissioner jobs. Let’s place them on the list of 41 police areas to see where they concentrate. Anyone putting money on an even spread of former Labour MPs across the various chances of winning?

1. Merseyside – 69.6% – Jane Kennedy, Peter Kilfoyle
2. Northumbria – 65.64% – Vera Baird, Hilton Dawson
3. Durham – 65.63%
4. South Yorkshire – 62.04%
5. Greater Manchester – 59.68% – Tony Lloyd
6. South Wales – 59.32% – Alun Michael
7. Gwent – 57.47%
8. West Yorkshire – 55.20%
9. West Midlands – 54.69%
10. Nottinghamshire – 53.80% – Paddy Tipping

Ian Cawsey and John Prescott are being relatively brave then in pitching for the nomination in Humberside, with a paltry 49.6% of the vote being Labour. If every single other voter in the area agrees in advance on a candidate, the Labour man might not get the job! But then, as the proposal to stop Lords becoming PCCs didn’t survive the Bill’s journey through, er, the Lords, I suppose Lord Prescott isn’t really risking his existing job by standing.

Of the ten former Labour MPs only James Plaskitt in Warwickshire is pitching for what looks like an uphill battle. Nice to see someone show a bit of character!

For Conservatives, it’s much simpler. They have 10 areas currently forecast in this scenario for a greater than 50% Conservative vote, and only one former MP in contention who is still in the party. That is Humfrey Malins, who is considering standing in Surrey, the safest Conservative Police Area, with 58.54% of the vote expected to be Conservative.

These former MPs are real risk-takers and committed democrats, aren’t they? Do you think the people who say that citizens should have a chance to choose party candidates in safe seats perhaps might be on to something?

This entry was posted in Conservatives, Labour, Resources, Selecting Candidates and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.

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