Winning Candidates
With 41 of 41 results…
Conservatives – 16
Labour – 13
Independent – 12
The predictions referred to below are the baselines I suggested from Police Foundation research and national polling on party preferences – in the absence of previous election data. Where results are different from the baselines the winning candidate is believed to have done particularly well.
Avon and Somerset – Sue Mountstevens – Independent – (predicted too close to call, with Labour ahead) – Website
Bedfordshire – Olly Martins – Labour – (predicted – Too Close To Call with Labour ahead) – Website
Cambridgeshire – Sir Graham Bright – Conservative (as predicted) – Website
Cheshire – John Dwyer – Conservative – (predicted Labour) – Website
Cleveland – Barry Coppinger – Labour (as predicted) – Website – TopOfTheCops Candidate Statement
Cumbria – Richard Rhodes – Conservative (predicted Labour, so a valuable northern upset here for the Conservatives) – Website
Derbyshire – Alan Charles – Labour (as predicted) – Website
Devon and Cornwall – Commodore Tony Hogg – Conservative (as predicted) – Website
Dorset – Martyn Underhill – Independent (predicted Conservative but with Martyn as one of four Independents nationally worth watching) – Website – TopOfTheCops Candidate Statement
Durham – Ron Hogg – Labour (as predicted)
Dyfed Powys – Christopher Salmon – Conservative (predicted safe Labour, so a real upset) – Website
Essex – Nick Alston – Conservative (as predicted) – Website
Gloucestershire – Martin Surl – Independent (predicted Too Close To Call with Labour ahead) – Website
Greater Manchester – Tony Lloyd– Labour (as predicted) – Website
Gwent – Ian Johnston – Independent (predicted safe Labour, so another real upset for Labour in Wales) – Website – TopOfTheCops Candidate Statement
Hampshire – Simon Hayes – Independent (predicted Conservative, but in August I suggested this seat could effectively host an unofficial Primary election between Michael Mates and former Conservative Simon Hayes) – Website
Hertfordshire – David Lloyd – Conservative (as predicted) – Website
Humberside – Matthew Grove – Conservative (predicted Labour, but as John Prescott loses we can all breathe a sigh of relief and thank the God who obviously is there and cares for us) – Website
Kent – Ann Barnes – Independent (predicted Conservative, but Ann Barnes was another of my 4 Independents to watch nationally) – Website
Lancashire – Clive Grunshaw – Labour (as predicted) – Website
Leicestershire – Sir Clive Loader – Conservative (predicted Labour) – Website
Lincolnshire – Alan Hardwick – Independent (predicted too close to call with Conservatives ahead) – Website
Merseyside – Jane Kennedy – Labour (as predicted) – Website
Norfolk – Stephen Bett – Independent (predicted too close to call with Labour ahead because of impact of Bett on Tory votes. Bett was Tory Police Authority Chairman and resigned pre-election after they failed to select him) – Website
Northamptonshire – Adam Simmonds – Conservative (as predicted) – Website
Northumbria – Vera Baird – Labour (as predicted) – Website
North Wales – Winston Roddick – Independent (predicted safe Labour, so yet another shock result for Labour in Wales) – Website
North Yorkshire – Julia Mulligan – Conservative (as predicted) – Website
Nottinghamshire – Paddy Tipping – Labour (as expected) – Website
South Wales – Alun Michael – Labour (as predicted – a relief for Labour to get 1 of the 4 Welsh seats) – Website
South Yorkshire – Shaun Wright – Labour (as predicted) – Website
Staffordshire – Matthew Ellis – Conservative (predicted Too Close To Call, with Labour ahead) – Website
Suffolk – Tim Passmore – Conservative (predicted Too Close to Call, with Conservatives ahead) – Website
Surrey – Kevin Hurley – Independent (predicted Conservative, but in August I suggested this seat could effectively host an unofficial Primary election after the Conservatives did not shortlist Hurley) – Website – TopOfTheCops Candidate Statement
Sussex – Katy Bourne – Conservative (as predicted) – Website
Thames Valley – Anthony Stansfeld – Conservative (as predicted) – Website
Warwickshire – Ron Ball – Independent (predicted Too Close To Call, with Conservatives ahead) – Website
West Mercia – Bill Longmore – Independent (predicted safe Conservative) – Website
West Midlands – Bob Jones – Labour (as predicted)– Website – TopOfTheCops Candidate Statement
West Yorkshire – Marks Burns-Williamson – Labour (as predicted) –Website
Wiltshire – Angus MacPherson – Conservative (as predicted) – Website
Detailed area and aggregated data can be found:-
Bernard Rix’s site including a natty swingometer
You can also find some useful info and analysis of the Independents at Jon Harvey’s website here.
