Results 2012

Winning Candidates

With 41 of 41 results…

Conservatives – 16

Labour – 13

Independent – 12

The predictions referred to below are the baselines I suggested from Police Foundation research and national polling on party preferences – in the absence of previous election data. Where results are different from the baselines the winning candidate is believed to have done particularly well.

Avon and Somerset – Sue Mountstevens Independent – (predicted too close to call, with Labour ahead) – Website

BedfordshireOlly MartinsLabour – (predicted – Too Close To Call with Labour ahead) – Website

Cambridgeshire – Sir Graham BrightConservative (as predicted) – Website

Cheshire – John DwyerConservative – (predicted Labour) – Website

ClevelandBarry Coppinger Labour (as predicted) – WebsiteTopOfTheCops Candidate Statement

Cumbria – Richard RhodesConservative (predicted Labour, so a valuable northern upset here for the Conservatives) – Website

Derbyshire – Alan CharlesLabour (as predicted) – Website

Devon and Cornwall – Commodore Tony HoggConservative (as predicted) – Website

DorsetMartyn Underhill Independent (predicted Conservative but with Martyn as one of four Independents nationally worth watching) – WebsiteTopOfTheCops Candidate Statement

DurhamRon HoggLabour (as predicted)

Dyfed PowysChristopher Salmon Conservative (predicted safe Labour, so a real upset) – Website

Essex – Nick AlstonConservative (as predicted) – Website

Gloucestershire – Martin Surl Independent (predicted Too Close To Call with Labour ahead) – Website

Greater Manchester – Tony LloydLabour (as predicted) – Website

Gwent – Ian JohnstonIndependent (predicted safe Labour, so another real upset for Labour in Wales) – WebsiteTopOfTheCops Candidate Statement

Hampshire – Simon HayesIndependent (predicted Conservative, but in August I suggested this seat could effectively host an unofficial Primary election between Michael Mates and former Conservative Simon Hayes) – Website

Hertfordshire – David LloydConservative (as predicted) – Website

Humberside – Matthew GroveConservative (predicted Labour, but as John Prescott loses we can all breathe a sigh of relief and thank the God who obviously is there and cares for us) – Website

Kent – Ann Barnes – Independent (predicted Conservative, but Ann Barnes was another of my 4 Independents to watch nationally) – Website

Lancashire – Clive GrunshawLabour (as predicted) – Website

Leicestershire – Sir Clive LoaderConservative (predicted Labour) – Website

Lincolnshire – Alan HardwickIndependent (predicted too close to call with Conservatives ahead) – Website

Merseyside – Jane KennedyLabour (as predicted) – Website

Norfolk – Stephen BettIndependent (predicted too close to call with Labour ahead because of impact of Bett on Tory votes. Bett was Tory Police Authority Chairman and resigned pre-election after they failed to select him) – Website

Northamptonshire – Adam SimmondsConservative (as predicted) – Website

Northumbria – Vera BairdLabour (as predicted) – Website

North Wales – Winston Roddick Independent (predicted safe Labour, so yet another shock result for Labour in Wales) – Website

North Yorkshire – Julia Mulligan – Conservative (as predicted) – Website

Nottinghamshire – Paddy TippingLabour (as expected) – Website

South Wales – Alun MichaelLabour (as predicted – a relief for Labour to get 1 of the 4 Welsh seats) – Website

South Yorkshire – Shaun WrightLabour (as predicted) – Website

Staffordshire – Matthew EllisConservative (predicted Too Close To Call, with Labour ahead) – Website

Suffolk – Tim PassmoreConservative (predicted Too Close to Call, with Conservatives ahead) – Website

Surrey – Kevin HurleyIndependent (predicted Conservative, but in August I suggested this seat could effectively host an unofficial Primary election after the Conservatives did not shortlist Hurley) – WebsiteTopOfTheCops Candidate Statement

Sussex – Katy BourneConservative (as predicted) – Website

Thames Valley – Anthony StansfeldConservative (as predicted) – Website

Warwickshire – Ron BallIndependent (predicted Too Close To Call, with Conservatives ahead) – Website

West Mercia – Bill LongmoreIndependent (predicted safe Conservative) – Website

West Midlands – Bob JonesLabour (as predicted)– Website – TopOfTheCops Candidate Statement

West Yorkshire – Marks Burns-WilliamsonLabour (as predicted) –Website

Wiltshire – Angus MacPhersonConservative (as predicted) – Website

Detailed area and aggregated data can be found:-

Bernard Rix’s site including a natty swingometer

The Guardian

The Home Office

The Association of PCCs

The Police Foundation

You can also find some useful info and analysis of the Independents at Jon Harvey’s website here.

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