Winning Candidates

With 41 of 41 results…

Conservatives – 16

Labour – 13

Independent – 12

The predictions referred to below are the baselines I suggested from Police Foundation research and national polling on party preferences – in the absence of previous election data. Where results are different from the baselines the winning candidate is believed to have done particularly well.

Avon and Somerset – Sue Mountstevens – Independent – (predicted too close to call, with Labour ahead) – Website

Bedfordshire – Olly Martins – Labour – (predicted – Too Close To Call with Labour ahead) – Website

Cambridgeshire – Sir Graham Bright – Conservative (as predicted) – Website

Cheshire – John Dwyer – Conservative – (predicted Labour) – Website

Cleveland – Barry Coppinger – Labour (as predicted) – Website – TopOfTheCops Candidate Statement

Cumbria – Richard Rhodes – Conservative (predicted Labour, so a valuable northern upset here for the Conservatives) – Website

Derbyshire – Alan Charles – Labour (as predicted) – Website

Devon and Cornwall – Commodore Tony Hogg – Conservative (as predicted) – Website

Dorset – Martyn Underhill – Independent (predicted Conservative but with Martyn as one of four Independents nationally worth watching) – Website – TopOfTheCops Candidate Statement

Durham – Ron Hogg – Labour (as predicted)

Dyfed Powys – Christopher Salmon – Conservative (predicted safe Labour, so a real upset) – Website

Essex – Nick Alston – Conservative (as predicted) – Website

Gloucestershire – Martin Surl – Independent (predicted Too Close To Call with Labour ahead) – Website

Greater Manchester – Tony Lloyd– Labour (as predicted) – Website

Gwent – Ian Johnston – Independent (predicted safe Labour, so another real upset for Labour in Wales) – Website – TopOfTheCops Candidate Statement

Hampshire – Simon Hayes – Independent (predicted Conservative, but in August I suggested this seat could effectively host an unofficial Primary election between Michael Mates and former Conservative Simon Hayes) – Website

Hertfordshire – David Lloyd – Conservative (as predicted) – Website

Humberside – Matthew Grove – Conservative (predicted Labour, but as John Prescott loses we can all breathe a sigh of relief and thank the God who obviously is there and cares for us) – Website

Kent – Ann Barnes – Independent (predicted Conservative, but Ann Barnes was another of my 4 Independents to watch nationally) – Website

Lancashire – Clive Grunshaw – Labour (as predicted) – Website

Leicestershire – Sir Clive Loader – Conservative (predicted Labour) – Website

Lincolnshire – Alan Hardwick – Independent (predicted too close to call with Conservatives ahead) – Website

Merseyside – Jane Kennedy – Labour (as predicted) – Website

Norfolk – Stephen Bett – Independent (predicted too close to call with Labour ahead because of impact of Bett on Tory votes. Bett was Tory Police Authority Chairman and resigned pre-election after they failed to select him) – Website

Northamptonshire – Adam Simmonds – Conservative (as predicted) – Website

Northumbria – Vera Baird – Labour (as predicted) – Website

North Wales – Winston Roddick – Independent (predicted safe Labour, so yet another shock result for Labour in Wales) – Website

North Yorkshire – Julia Mulligan – Conservative (as predicted) – Website

Nottinghamshire – Paddy Tipping – Labour (as expected) – Website

South Wales – Alun Michael – Labour (as predicted – a relief for Labour to get 1 of the 4 Welsh seats) – Website

South Yorkshire – Shaun Wright – Labour (as predicted) – Website

Staffordshire – Matthew Ellis – Conservative (predicted Too Close To Call, with Labour ahead) – Website

Suffolk – Tim Passmore – Conservative (predicted Too Close to Call, with Conservatives ahead) – Website

Surrey – Kevin Hurley – Independent (predicted Conservative, but in August I suggested this seat could effectively host an unofficial Primary election after the Conservatives did not shortlist Hurley) – Website – TopOfTheCops Candidate Statement

Sussex – Katy Bourne – Conservative (as predicted) – Website

Thames Valley – Anthony Stansfeld – Conservative (as predicted) – Website

Warwickshire – Ron Ball – Independent (predicted Too Close To Call, with Conservatives ahead) – Website

West Mercia – Bill Longmore – Independent (predicted safe Conservative) – Website

West Midlands – Bob Jones – Labour (as predicted)– Website – TopOfTheCops Candidate Statement

West Yorkshire – Marks Burns-Williamson – Labour (as predicted) –Website

Wiltshire – Angus MacPherson – Conservative (as predicted) – Website

Detailed area and aggregated data can be found:-

Bernard Rix's site including a natty swingometer

The Guardian

The Home Office

The Association of PCCs

The Police Foundation

You can also find some useful info and analysis of the Independents at Jon Harvey's website here.