And Ken writes the second PCC manifesto.

Posted on 05/04/2012 by samchapman

They’re like London buses. No PCC manifestos and then suddenly, one after another. I’ll expect Paddick’s next.

Hot on the heels of Boris’s breakthrough Crime Manifesto, it’s Mr Livingstone, I presume.

Here are the highlights of Ken Livingstone’s Crime Manifesto:-

– A 999 pledge – increasing ‘more’ of the Safer Neighbourhood Teams from six and to nine officers, all with a sergeant to lead them, and a presence on the streets from 9am to 9pm.

– Reverse Boris Johnson’s Police Cuts – a FullFact factcheck makes this claim less than straightforward.

– A Victims’ Commissioner for London with online access for victims to progress reports on their case.

– A campaign against sexual harassment.

– A ‘repeat offenders unit’ at the Metropolitan Police to tackle reoffending.

– A Streetwatch pilot of civilian patrols in every ward in London.

– Lots of stuff on knife crime and girls in gangs.

So, looking at them both, everyone wants more cops. No-one is agreed on whether there are more or less under Boris, and everyone wants more from the populace, either in terms of citizen patrols, or more specials.

Discuss…preferably without partisan comments!

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Boris writes the first PCC manifesto

Posted on 03/04/2012 by samchapman

The PCC elections have been criticised for creating policy free zones, which I think is a tad unfair. The elections are as yet over 7 months away, and candidates are sometimes tempted not to reveal their ideas so early that opponents (including rivals in their own parties) can steal them, while retaining the concern not to break a party line that has not yet been revealed.

Not so in London, where Boris Johnson has revealed his Crime Manifesto. I’m not going to engage in a critique or fact-check of this document, but merely draw to your attention some of the highlights and implications.

Continue reading →

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Tight fights for TopOfTheCops

Posted on 02/04/2012 by samchapman

The Police and Crime Commissioner election battleground may be starting to emerge. I’ll not repeat all the caveats about the recent Police Foundation research on voting and these elections, but instead look to identify the closest races.

The Police Foundation do this in a chart in their report, which is based on votes in the 2010 election for Parliament in these Police Areas. That gave a list of the 10 closest races in England as being (in alphabetical order), Avon & Somerset, Cheshire, Cumbria, Derbyshire, Devon & Cornwall, Humberside, Lancashire, Nottinghamshire, West Midlands and West Yorkshire. In Wales, the races in Dyfed Powys and North Wales were closest.

However, while these have the benefit of being based on real votes, they were real votes without the reality of Coalition government, and things have moved on, including the fact that in many areas there seems likely to be no LibDem candidate. Factor-in recent opinion polls and the lack of LibDems and which areas look like the closest fights?

To answer that, TopOfTheCops looked at which areas in the report had the two main parties finishing within 10% of each other after the predicted distribution of second preferences when recent polling and a loss of LibDems is taken into account. In these areas a 5% swing of votes from this prediction could give a different result in a total of 12 areas, as follows, with those in bold having also appeared on the above list. Note that, for technical reasons, this can only be done with police areas in England, not Wales.

1. Bedfordshire – Conservatives 2.2% ahead
2. Leicestershire – Labour 2.75% ahead
3. Staffordshire – Conservatives 4.7% ahead
4. Avon & Somerset – Conservatives 4.8% ahead (of Labour unless LibDems stand which they might).
5. Northamptonshire – Conservatives 6% ahead
6. Gloucestershire – Conservatives 7.5% ahead
7. Lancashire – Labour 8% ahead
8. Norfolk – Conservatives 8.3% ahead
9. Cheshire – Labour 8.5% ahead
10. Cumbria – Labour 8.6% ahead
11. Humberside – Labour 9.7% ahead
12. Suffolk – Conservatives 9.5% ahead

Keep in mind though that achieving a majority of Police and Crime Commissioners is largely symbolic for the parties. These are not seats in a Council or Parliament, where majorities matter as to who is in control. They are individual independent offices.

The value of these elections for other elections will be twofold:-

1. Momentum – looking like a winner or loser can colour public and press attitudes to parties and their leaders, creating expectations for them to live up to or down to. The first elections after these are the May 2013 County Council elections. Collectively, these are mid-terms, where governments expect to suffer, and where Oppositions need to look impressive. Yet on current polling, the Conservatives might take over half the PCC positions, which could look like a mid-term victory.

2. Results in individual areas create impressions because of stereotypes and the narrative they provide. If the Conservatives take Lancashire or Humberside, they look like they are excelling nationally. If Labour take Cheshire or Norfolk, they look like they are on the advance.

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What are the LibDems thinking?

Posted on 01/04/2012 by samchapman

There has been very little LibDem input in this election so far, and it seems likely to continue that way. The party centrally is not funding local PCC candidates. A few local parties may chance their arms, but even in some of their better areas, like Devon and Cornwall, it seems there will be no formal LibDem candidate.

While there has been a suggestion that running would compromise their ideologically-pure opposition to the idea of elected police chiefs, which Labour candidates have all been able to get past, TopOfTheCops has previously speculated that the real problem is a financial one. No party looks in a great position to fund these elections, still less the one with the least ability to fundraise, but in the absence of anything more enlightening from LibDems themselves, let’s have a look at the impact of the recent electoral research published by the Police Foundation.

What difference does the Lib-Dems standing in the Police and Crime Commissioner election actually make?

Continue reading →

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Sure things?

Posted on 31/03/2012 by samchapman

Want some fun? How about a little analysis of that Police Foundation research on voting patterns and Police and Crime Commissioner elections that TopOfTheCops featured yesterday?

Let’s use it to pick out say, the ten best bets for Labour candidates in the country. To do this we’ll pick the ten seats that are Labour under all four scenarios in the report, ranked by how big the Labour vote is anticipated to be on the basis of recent opinion polls, and the knowledge that the LibDems aren’t standing in many areas. What do we find?

Continue reading →

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This is not normal politics

Posted on 30/03/2012 by samchapman

Today, I found myself in the environs of Westminster and, on College Green, a film crew were patiently seeking to record a scene with some of the cast from “The Thick Of It” while people like me got in the way. Some passing American tourists, on hearing it was the BBC, immediately jumped to the conclusion that this was a news crew interviewing real politicians with the Palace of Westminster in the background. But no, though it may have the trappings of normal politics, it isn’t. It’s just show business.

The same of course, could be said of the Bradford West by-election, where the bizarrely-titled ‘Respect’ candidate, serial showman George Galloway, trounced everybody else who stood. As it was considered a safe Labour seat, the Labour party will feel it most keenly. Is it anti-politics? Is it what happens when you excite the sympathies of local mosques in an area with a high muslim population? Each explanation seems initially attractive, but soon seems beset with problems. At the moment, no-one really knows.

Against this rather unfortunate backdrop the Police Foundation released a study of what might predictably happen under the normal rules of politics (well, psephology actually) in the Police and Crime Commissioner elections, based on the last general election and recent opinion polls, which is here, with a methodology here, and a previous worked example of guesstimating second preferences here.

The study predicts results in each of the 41 police areas on the basis of 4 scenarios – the 2010 general election with and without the LibDems, and recent polling with and without the LibDems. If your party wins under all four scenarios in your area then you may feel pleased. If it loses on all four, you may be dischuffed, and if it is more mixed, you may not know what to think.

Please note this is not what my former colleagues in the police would call “bobby-proof”. The warnings about interpreting it aren’t the general terms and conditions of software licences that you might be tempted to skip past. In particular, please note that the 2010 General Election may not be the best place to start when making such estimates. My own suspicion is that turnout may be a lot more like a local election and voter distribution is anyone’s guess in a single-issue election. So, by all means accept that this is a good piece of work marred only by the comic timing of its release, but don’t mislead yourself with the pretty graphs, especially when the real information is in the tables. As Labour’s Sussex hopeful Paul Richards argues, those up for election need to win each vote afresh at each election. Take it from him – he loses on all four scenarios.

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Parties and pasties

Posted on 29/03/2012 by samchapman

Devon and Cornwall police have a special significance to me, as I spent a summer in their care before my final year at university, observing policing in Torquay and surrounds, as well as at the headquarters in Exeter. My memory is that the ACC listened very politely to me and my fellow undergraduate reporting as requested on how they could improve their quality of service, amazing given our lack of experience, and that they were even good enough to implement some of our recommendations.

A, cough, few years on, the PCC race in Devon and Cornwall is getting interesting, but not in the usual way. One would expect this race to be between Liberal Democrat and Conservatives, but it seriously looks like the Liberal Democrats may not be putting forward a candidate in what would be one of their best prospects, to the extent that one possible LibDem candidate, Devon County Councillor Brian Greenslade, is getting ready to stand as an Independent.

Continue reading →

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Highlights from draft Police and Crime Commissioner election rules

Posted on 28/03/2012 by samchapman

I understand that the draft rules for the Police and Crime Commissioners are currently with Police Authorities, the Electoral Commission and other consultees. Once again, you can search for draft legislation at legislation.gov.uk, where it is supposed to be, and find nothing. But the good folk at the Electoral Commission have published some highlights, which are further summarised below.

Remember folks, it’s only a draft, so the rules could change, but here are the main points:-

The draft rules on spending and donations include:

  • a limit on what candidates can spend on campaigning between 8 October 2012 and polling day, of £2,362 plus 17.7p for every registered elector in the police area. (As an example, with Lancashire’s reputed 1.3 million electorate, this would work out at £232,462.)
  • a limit on what other people and organisations campaigning for or against particular candidates can spend between 8 October 2012 and polling day, which is £50 plus 0.5p for each registered elector. (Again, in Lancashire this would work out at £6,550)
  • no spending limits on national campaigning by political parties, or by non-party campaigners who support or oppose a group of candidates. At least one LibDem commentator sees this as weighted toward the Conservatives.

The Commission want the Government to do the sums for candidates to make it clear what the limit is in each area. The lack of national limits may mean there is no limit on the ‘long campaign’, i.e. the amounts spent before 8 October.

Such large sums may seem academic to many candidates who won’t have anything like that to spend, but remember, by the election a Second-Class stamp will cost 50p. In other words, if you had enough money, you still couldn’t afford to do a parliamentry-style mailshot to each voting household, because you would breach your spending limit. Difficult to see where the government’s favoured independent candidates fit in all this, with no existing machine to deliver their leaflets.

Anyone who wants to fundraise looks set to be bound by the following…

  • candidates will only be able to accept donations over £50 from certain types of donor, such as individuals on an electoral register. These rules will apply to all donations that fund campaigning from 8 October 2012 onwards, including donations made before 8 October. The situation with donations below £50 is unclear, as is that with donations that fund campaigning before 8 October.
  • these donations will also need to be reported and made public after the election.

Potential candidates may also need to tell the Commission about other donations to their campaign if they are:

  • a member of a political party, or
  • an elected councillor, an elected mayor, a Member of one of the UK’s parliaments and Assemblies, or a member of the European Parliament.
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The dog that didn’t bite

Posted on 27/03/2012 by samchapman

While everyone was looking the other way at the Home Secretary’s warm initial response to Winsor part 2, and his own by-now-ritual promise to toughen-up community sentences, the Justice Secretary put out a consultation on the future of probation. It was notable for what it didn’t say about Police and Crime Commissioners. One of the great things potentially planned for the “and Crime” bit of the job was a role commissioning local Probation services, but the report talks of decreasing the number of Probation areas, which would mean they would no longer be a good match to the Police Areas on which Police and Crime Commissioners will commission. The consultation mentions PCCs possibly having oversight over probation at some time in the future, or local councils might, but it’s very much “we’ll do it another way first” and the consultation will close before any PCCs are elected. As the Guardian’s Alan Travis argues, perhaps this is one where Ken Clarke won out against Theresa May.

Having served three years on Lancashire Probation Board (er, for the avoidance of doubt, that’s a role, not a sentence), I’m aware that past governments, when talking tough about probation, have allied it with law-enforcement services. And having in the past as a police officer had to visit a probation office in plain clothes, lest their ‘customers’ should think they had anything to do with the police, I suspect this is a win for the probation establishment, and a loss for the public.

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Police Authorities – are they really invisible?

Posted on 26/03/2012 by samchapman

One of the reasons Police Authorities are being replaced is because of their alleged invisibility. No-one knows who they are. On a recent Sunday Politics North West debate, none of the participants could name a single member of Lancashire Police Authority.

However, I do feel for Police Authorities here. For the years I served on Lancashire Probation Board, our meetings were held in public, but I can’t ever remember the public turning up. On the Council, it’s a little better, but much the same. If anything, the Police Authority have tried – for years I went to one Police Authority Community Meeting after another, and found little more than the ‘usual suspects’ in attendence, despite repeated efforts to counter this. Often, ordinary people are understandably uninterested in agendas, minutes, and the like, and it seems to take some immediate threat for most people to give up family or telly-time to engage with these sort of bodies.

The new Police and Crime Commissioner will enter office with the benefit of having just had the major doorstep challenge of getting elected. That will require engagement, and they will probably want to continue that interaction. The doorstep is actually a good place to meet the public. Sure, there are people who just want to keep the heat in their house, or eat their tea – but often they appreciate the effort made in coming round, and the individual attention it involves. Importantly, while in Lancashire there will not be a chance to knock on the doors of 1.3 million voters between now and November, the doors that will be knocked on will probably generate a much more representative sample of public opinion than the ‘usual suspects’ ever did. The Commissioner cannot be an individual caseworker for every policing incident of all those people, but the discipline of regular contact that an election brings provides an opportunity to take engagement of the public to another level.

Just one niggle though. I was acutely aware last week that the Police Authority, an organisation that is very sensitive about being labelled invisible, was having its meeting in a borrowed room at County Hall, where 4 cameras point down on the inhabitants so that the County Council can webcast its meetings to the world. But for the Police Authority, in the same room, there was no webcast. Can’t understand why people think they’re invisible.

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